I spent some time researching gambling sites looking for a way to handicap the playoffs, and eventually I came upon what I wanted on vegasinsider.com. They give the mathematical formula that Vegas casino’s use to calculate odds for baseball games. And guess what? We keep all the statistics necessary to make these calculations for our bocce league!
So I am going to list every playoff match up and give a % chance of victory. That percentage is not my guess on who wins, but the odds Vegas casinos would give if the sports books allowed betting on Turbo Bocce, based on an actual mathematical formula they actually use. Lets see if there are any surprises!
The Rookies – 8 seed – 18-12 record – 1.630 BCS – % Chance of Victory = 14
Balls of Fury – 1 seed – 29-1 record – 2.389 BCS – % Victory = 86
Analysis – Balls of Fury went 29-1 this year so you have to expect their odds are always going to be very high. Still, I’d say The Rookies earned a respectful percentage from Vegas considering they need to beat Balls of Fury twice as many times in three games as anybody was able to do in thirty.
De-Bocce-ry – 13 seed – 13-17 record – 1.404 BCS – % Victory = 50
Ontario Strikers – 12 seed – 13-17 record – 1.461 BCS – % Victory = 50
Analysis – Vegas has this as a coin flip. Understandable since both teams have the same record. Apparently Ontario Strikers slightly more difficult strength of schedule does not count for much in Vegas’s eyes. I actually know who won this 50/50 encounter because Ontario Strikers could not play this week and De-Bocce-ry were classy enough and kind enough to give them an early game last week. Officially one team is already in the final four, but I’ll keep you wondering who it is until we do the recap.
Experienced Ball Handlers – 10 seed – 15-15 record – 1.562 BCS – % Victory = 33
Money Shot – 2 seed – 23-7 record – 2.035 BCS – % Victory = 77
Analysis – These teams already played during the regular season and even though Money Shot won, Experienced Ball Handlers gave them all they could handle. Of course, Vegas does not know this as head-to-head is not one of the statistics they care about. I think this will be an interesting game.
Thunderballz – 3 seed – 23-7 record – 1.968 BCS – % Victory = 64
The Blowing 8 Balls – 6 seed – 17-13 record – 1.685 BCS – % Victory = 36
Analysis – This has got to be the most intriguing match up of the round of eight. Thunderballz has been consistently excellent all year long, and The Blowing 8 Balls are the hottest team around. Vegas clearly favors consistency over current form. Are they right to do that? We will find out on Wednesday.