The Breakfast of Champions Bracket

Team Name Overall Seed Record BCS % Chance of Victory*
Breakfast of Champions 3 23-7 2.067 100
BYE NA NA NA 0
 

 

Double A’s 30 13-17 1.477 49
Breaking Balls 35 12-18 1.349 51
 

 

One Eye Fish 19 18-12 1.665 80
Beer United 46 8-22 1.090 20
Team Name Overall Seed Record BCS % Chance of Victory*
Salty Bocce Balls 14 18-12 1.738 66
The Mary Janes 51 8-22 1.039 34
 

 

Stealth Fox 3 11 20-10 1.786 97
Steal Your Face 54 6-24 0.909 3
 

 

Two Balls On Your Ace 22 17-13 1.606 73
Blonde Bocce Bitches 43 10-20 1.140 27
Team Name Overall Seed Record BCS % Chance of Victory*
Knickerbocces 27 15-15 1.531 33
Ball Don’t Lie 38 12-18 1.314 67
 

 

Ball & Chain 6 22-8 1.938 100
BYE NA NA NA 0

 

*The % Chance of victory is not my prediction, but a mathematical formula borrowed from vegasinsider.com. It was invented as a baseball analytic that computes the % chance of victory each team has in a competition by using the records we have available. Think of it as what the Vegas odds for each team would be, because that is pretty much what it is.

 

My Analysis – There is the potential for some intriguing rematches from last year’s playoffs in this bracket. I beat One Eyed Fish in last year’s playoff and if the favorites hold suit I will play them again in the final 16 this year. On the other side of things, Ball Don’t Lie knocked me out of the playoffs last year, and we might meet again in the elite 8. If we don’t, and the favorites win out, I will play Ball & Chain who I played a record long 19-17 game against earlier this season.

If you take a careful look at the Vegas odds you will see two irregularities. We had some lower seeds who got better odds to win than you might have thought thus far, but we have not yet had a lower seed that was the outright Vegas favorite. That changed in this round, not once, but twice. Breaking Balls have a 51% chance of beating the slightly higher seeded Double A’s, and even more surprisingly, Ball Don’t Lie has a huge 67% chance of beating the much higher seeded Knicerbocces. In fairness, the Knickerbocces got some bad luck drawing the 38th seed and having them be a final four team from last season.