We know the playoff match ups, we know the seeds, we know the BCS. What don’t we know yet? The odds Vegas would put on each team winning.
I’m about to fix that.
I spent some time researching gambling sites looking for a way to handicap the playoffs, and eventually I came upon what I wanted on vegasinsider.com. They give the mathematical formula that Vegas casino’s use to calculate odds for baseball games. And guess what? We keep all the statistics necessary to make these calculations for our bocce league!
So I am going to list every playoff match up and give a % chance of victory. That percentage is not my guess on who wins, but the odds Vegas casinos would give if the sports books allowed betting on Turbo Bocce, based on an actual mathematical formula they actually use. Lets see if there are any surprises!
Rick & Robb – 1 seed – 24-6 record – 2.191 BCS – % Chance of Victory = 90
DaVinci – 32 seed – 12-18 record – 1.297 BCS – % Victory = 10
Analysis – Vegas has Rick & Robb as huge favorites (the biggest favorite in the previous round was 78%) which isn’t a huge surprise because they are the number one team in the league. The last team Vegas put really big odds on winning actually lost though, so lets see what happens here.
Blue Balls – 17 seed – 15-15 – 1.516 BCS – % Victory = 48
Double A’s – 16 seed – 14-16 – 1.532 BCS – % Victory = 52
Analysis – Vegas has this one close (as it should be), but this is the first time so far that Vegas has the team with the worse record as the favorite. Its not quite an upset according to the BCS which has Double A’s as the 16 seed and Blue Balls as the 17 seed, but its the first time so far the team with the worse record is the Vegas favorite. By any standard this should be an interesting game.
Vince’s Gourmet Imports – 9 seed – 18-12 record – 1.816 BCS – % Victory = 67
Dripping Stallions – 24 seed – 13-17 record – 1.380 BCS – % Victory = 33
Analysis – Vegas has Vince’s Gourmet Imports as pretty big favorites without even knowing that Vince’s Gourmet Imports are our reigning champions. Tough match up for a rookie team like Dripping Stallions. I will say that Dripping Stallions seem up for a fight though.
Mean Girls – 40 seed – 8-22 record – 1.113 BCS – % Victory = 10
Omnipotence – 8 seed – 20-10 record – 1.825 BCS – % Victory = 90
Analysis – You had to assume Omnipotence would be the favorite after the season they had, but I have to say I’m surprised at how big a favorite they are. They have the same odds of winning as the league’s number one seed. Its clear that Vegas loves them.
Regulators – 4 seed – 22-8 record – 1.965 BCS – % Victory = 80
Twinning – 29 seed – 13-17 record – 1.324 BCS – % Victory = 20
Analysis – Regulators have the odds you’d expect a team with a bracket named after them to have, but I’d personally give Twinning more than a 20% shot against any team in the league.
Bocce Like Its Hot – 20 seed – 16-14 record – 1.630 BCS – % Victory = 55
Eazy Duz It – 13 seed – 14-16 record – 1.451 BCS – % Victory = 45
Analysis – This is exciting. The first true upset that Vegas picked. They like Bocce Like Its Hot to win despite the fact that they are the lower seed and have a worse record. Does Vegas know that Eazy Duz It was our number two team last year? I can tell you that, no, they don’t know that, it wasn’t part of the formula. I’ll be paying extra attention to this game just to see if Vegas has it right.
Kiss My Ace – 12 seed – 17-13 record – 1.659 BCS – % Victory = 63
Amerika’z Most Wanted – 21 seed – 13-17 – 1.419 BCS – % Victory = 37
Analysis – I’d say Vegas has this one predicted pretty much straight up considering the two team’s BCS. You might want to give Amerika’z Most Wanted a few bonus points for being proven playoff winners, but that’s not part of Vegas’s formula.
Little Big Leagues – 37 seed – 10-20 record – 1.189 BCS – % Victory = 21
2 ½ Kittens – 5 seed – 21-9 record – 1.952 BCS – % Victory = 79
Analysis – Little Big Leagues pulled off the biggest upset of the first round so it stands to reason that they’d be pretty big underdogs against the number five seed. To be honest I thought they’d be even bigger underdogs than they are. That is almost the same odds they had last round against the 28 seed (they had 22% chance in that game). Maybe Vegas knows something we dont?
Los Moppines – 2 seed – 25-5 record – 2.157 BCS – % Victory = 89
Red Rockets – 34 seed – 12-18 record – 1.262 BCS – % Victory = 11
Analysis – Vegas seems to love Los Moppines. They are the number two seed so you’d figure they’d get a lot of love, but to get that huge odds against Red Rockets is a bit of a surprise to me.
Lover Boys – 18 seed – 15 – 15 record – 1.482 BCS – % Victory = 56
Breakfast of Champions – 15 seed – 15-15 record – 1.554 BCS – % Victory = 44
Analysis – Vegas either likes Lover Boys or hates Breakfast of Champions, I can’t figure out which one. This is the second time so far that Vegas is predicting a straight upset. Although in this case its not much of an upset since both teams have 15-15 records. I guess Breakfast of Champions more difficult schedule did little to impress Vegas.
Droppin Balls – 10 seed – 18-12 record – 1.744 BCS – % Victory = 67
Kentucky Bourbon – 23 seed – 13-17 record – 1.408 BCS – % Victory = 33
Analysis – This prediction is about where you’d expect it to be given the two teams BCS rankings. But does Vegas know that Kentucky Bourbon was our runner up just two years ago, and on the way to earning that number two spot they beat Droppin Balls in the playoffs? No, they don’t. Its obviously not part of their mathematical formula, and I’m not even sure how relevant it is.
Bocce Aganist the Machine – 26 seed – 14-16 record – 1.366 – % Victory = 27
Balls Deep – 7 seed – 21-9 record – 1.864 – % Victory = 73
Analysis – Vegas seems to like Balls Deep. Although their percent of victory seems right about where it should be given their seed. I say Vegas likes them because I thought the quality of their opposition would take their chances into the high 60’s.
Black Jesus – 3 seed – 22-8 record – 2.064 BCS – % Victory = 69
Knights of the Round Ball – 35 seed – 12-18 record – 1.260 BCS – % Victory = 31
Analysis – Vegas predicted an upset in the last round, giving Knight’s of the Round Ball a 60% chance of victory despite being the lower seed. That upset pick came true and Knights of the Round Ball moved on to face three seed Black Jesus. Vegas definitely likes Knights of the Round Ball. This time they did not pick a straight upset but they do give Black Jesus much worse odds of winning than the teams around them. For comparison the two seed has an 89% chance of victory and the four seed has an 80% chance of victory.
Two Che – 19 seed – 15-15 record – 1.479 BCS – % Victory = 43
Schaffer BMW – 14 seed – 17-13 record – 1.596 BCS – % Victory = 57
Analysis – I was thinking that Two Che would be the favorites here, but when I take a close look at the numbers I see why Vegas did what they did. This actually seems like a pretty straight forward prediction given the two team’s BCS numbers.
Boccelism – 11 seed – 18-12 record – 1.697 – % Victory = 58
Rum Runners – 22 seed – 14-16 record – 1.409 – % Victory = 42
Analysis – After a terrible regular season last year, Bocelism had not the one biggest, but the two biggest upsets of last year’s playoffs. They took that momentum and ran with it this year, putting together a great regular season. I was most interested to see how Vegas would judge this game, because its two pretty good teams meeting. Last year Vegas hated Boccelism, this year they like them, but maybe not as much as they should? We shall see.
The Dicks Who Didn’t Steal Balls – 27 seed – 14-16 record – 1.327 BCS – % Victory = 42
Balls On Your Ace – 6 seed – 20-10 record – 1.874 BCS – % Victory = 58
Analysis – Vegas likes The Dicks Who Didn’t Steal Balls. Not enough to pick them for a straight upset, but enough to give them much better odds than other teams going up against top 6 foes.
Overall Analysis – Vegas only picked two straight upsets, and as much as I hate to say it because my team is one of those chosen to be upset, they seem to be two pretty smart choices. Both teams chosen to lose early disappointed last year in the playoffs.
Turbo Bocce playoffs are, as always, extremely unpredictable, so we will see what happens.
Here are the updated brackets (both sides) so you can check them out: