We know the playoff match ups, we know the seeds, we know the BCS. What don’t we know yet? The odds Vegas would put on each team winning.
I’m about to fix that.
I spent some time researching gambling sites looking for a way to handicap the playoffs, and eventually I came upon what I wanted on vegasinsider.com. They give the mathematical formula that Vegas casino’s use to calculate odds for baseball games. And guess what? We keep all the statistics necessary to make these calculations for our bocce league!
So I am going to list every playoff match up and give a % chance of victory. That percentage is not my guess on who wins, but the odds Vegas casinos would give if the sports books allowed betting on Turbo Bocce, based on an actual mathematical formula they actually use. Lets see if there are any surprises!
We Came In Like a Bocce Ball – 15 seed – 9-21 record – 1.220 BCS – % Chance of winning = 66
Tiny But Mighty – 18 seed – 3-27 record – 0.872 BCS – % Chance of winning = 34
Analysis – The Vegas odds seem to pretty much agree with what our BCS formula says in this one.
Experienced Ball Handlers – 10 seed – 15-15 record – 1.562 BCS – % Chance of winning = 37
Drunk Camels – 7 seed – 19-11 record – 1.654 BCS – % Chance of winning = 63
Analysis – The BCS has these teams pretty closely matched, but Vegas thinks the Drunk Camels are big favorites. If you look above the Drunk Camels have about the same odds to win as We Came In Like A Bocce Ball despite a much smaller BCS edge. Vegas likes the Drunk Camels. Interesting.
Thunderballz – 3 seed – 23-7 record – 1.968 BCS – % Chance of winning = 87
Bushwackers – 14 seed – 12-18 record – 1.398 BCS – % Chance of winning = 13
Analysis – Vegas has Thunderballz as a huge favorite. Sure, Thunderballz had an amazing year and you’d expect them to be the favorites, but, I’ve played Bushwackers and they seem too good to have only a 13% chance of winning. But what do I know?
Mashed Potatoes & Gravy – 11 seed – 14-16 record – 1.469 BCS – % Chance of winning = 34
The Blowing 8 Balls – 6 seed – 17-13 record – 1.685 BCS – % Chance of winning = 66
Analysis – The Blowing 8 Balls seem to be another team that Vegas likes, having a higher chance of winning than our BCS indicates is appropriate.
Dolce – 16 seed – 7-23 record – 1.008 BCS – % Chance of winning = 79
Peace, Love, & Bocce – 17 seed – 5-25 record – 0.956 BCS – % Chance of winning = 21
Analysis – Vegas really likes Dolce! Its not a surprise that they are favored, the surprise is by how much they are favored given that the two teams are separated by just one seed.
L & M – 9 seed – 14-16 record – 1.596 BCS – % Chance of winning = 37
The Rookies – 8 seed – 18-12 record – 1.630 BCS – % Chance of winning = 63
Analysis – While only one seed separates theses two teams based on BCS, Vegas says The Rookies are the team to put your money on.
Jay & Silent Botch – 4 seed – 20-10 record – 1.914 BCS – % Chance of winning = 74
De-Bocce-ry – 13 seed – 13-17 record – 1.404 BCS – % Chance of winning = 26
Analysis – Vegas like Jay & Silent Botch, but that pretty much matches up with what the BCS says.
Ontario Strikers – 12 seed – 13-17 record – 1.461 BCS – % Chance of winning = 30
For the Love of Bocce – 5 seed – 21-9 record – 1.912 BCS – % Chance of winning = 70
Analysis – I got the feeling form the numbers that Vegas liked both these teams, but of course the formula only outputs a percentage that you’ll beat your opposition, so its hard to tell. I’ll be interested to see how the winner measures up next round.
Overall Analysis – Vegas predicted zero upsets, which I think is unusual because it did not go that way in the Tuesday league. The surprise here is that Vegas went the other way, backing all the favorites in a huge way. There is nothing really even close to a 50/50 game according to Vegas. Maybe this is a good time to make a bet?
My advice: be weary of those huge numbers for the favorites, because bocce tournaments never go according to chalk and anything can happen!